Intel and My Beloved Mac
Posted on Monday, June 6th, 2005 at 17:07.
My initial reaction to Jobs confirming Intel in Apple was, “What the F***?!” I only have questions at this point and no one seems to have answers.
Today, if my Powerbook had an Intel Pentium 4 inside, it would be nearly 2 inches thick, have less than 2-hours of battery life, and run hot as hell.
Apple’s transition to the G5 had such great promise: an amazing 64-bit processor that outperforms the Pentium 4. Now Apple wants to revert back to a 32-bit processor that uses more electricity and produces far more heat. And have you seen the size of a P4? If I had the choice to be hit on the head with a G5 or a P4, I would survive the G5 with a minor bruise. A P4 would most definitely result in a severe concussion.
I am an Apple Campus Rep and I love my job. I work tomorrow at Harvard and I know that I will be flooded with questions. They’re such awesome geeks over there. Will you be able to run Mac OS X on a Dell? Is Apple finally confessing that the PowerPC architecture has been inferior all along? Should I wait to buy a Mac until next year? (Edit: No, you shouldn’t.) These are critical questions that I cannot answer.
I love Apple. I want to embrace this change, but I don’t understand and cannot comprehend how an Apple and Intel relationship helps anyone. It’s scary, but I trust Jobs. He has led Apple to heights never before seen in personal technology and his hunches have proven dead on accurate.
According to Phil Schiller in a CNET report: While you will be able to install Windows on an Intel-based Mac, it will not be possible to install OS X on a regular Intel machine such as a Dell.
If this is the case, then Apple is only setting itself up for headaches because geeks will find some way around this restriction. They always do. I cite XP’s Product Activation as an example.
Jason Snell’s Intel-Apple: A First Reaction is a great read, by the way.
Apple Switches to Intel
So it's official, Apple is switching to Intel. There's just so much I don't understand about this. Like how can Steve Jobs bash Intel for years and then just switch and just acting as if he never said anything?
I have to co…
This may be the beginning of the end for Apple. Their whole marketing message was that PowerPC is superior to x86. Apple is on the upswing now and this will kill their momentum. People will stop buying Macs because they want to wait for the new one. The drop in sales could be disastrous for Apple (the Osborne Effect). The only way this would have worked is if Apple had a machine ready *now*. Since old software will continue to run in emulation, releasing x86 macs before the updated software is ready won’t be such a big deal.
When I returned home this evening and read the news headline titled “Apple to Use Intel Microprocessors Beginning in 2006″, I was very much in the “WTF?” mode. Then I went through about 2 hours of “Why? How? What about the Megahertz Myth?” and probably all the same things that the rest of us Apple users have gone through today. Watching Steve’s keynote tonight, when he first announced that Apple was switching to Intel processors, there was no response from the developer audience either. I’m sure they were going through the same emotions…. UTTER SHOCK.
After thinking about it, we can really make no speculations about Apple’s demise at this point. There have always been rumors that Apple had an Intel port of OS X somewhere on campus that was running just as well as the PowerPC versions… and today Steve made it clear that that rumor was true. Steve talked a lot about “Roadmaps” today, and I believe that as forward looking into the future as both Intel and Apple do, the Intel processor was a better choice in price/performance for Apple in the future.
Looking back at other keynotes, I believe that Steve’s disappointment with the PowerPC platform is clear. Two years ago, he announced that Apple expected 3 GHz Macs within the year… and has complained at the last two keynotes that they just couldn’t get there quickly. Intel recently released a dual core Pentium… the Pentium D. When I saw that, I just had a feeling about Apple… but at that point, I thought it absurd.
Is this the demise of Apple? No. I do believe, however, that Apple jumped the gun in announcing this at this time, with other PowerPC based systems in the pipeline, as Steve suggested. Though there will be some people that will not buy a new Mac until the transition to the new architecture… people will continue buying Macs. I, however, was planning on buying a new G5 by the end of the year… but now my intention is to wait. I think instead that I will stick a processor upgrade into my G4 and let it go until next June. I still have plans to buy an iBook this year. But I see the point in their announcement of the new architecture now – Apple wants some Intel native apps available at the launch of the new architecture, and wanted to give developers enough time for transition.
I do think that it is possible, though it is speculation, that these new Intel based Macs will have lower price points that will put them more in line with WinTel machines. This could only help to benefit Apple in the long run if this is the case. Especially with the amount of switchers that we have had to the platform lately. Couple this with people’s growing disdain for the Windows’ world, and a lower price point for Macintosh computers… and BAM…. I believe you have the ingredients for more market share – definately a stab at the heart of the WinTel world.
All I know, if there was ever a time to short a stock of a company, you just hit the motherload……it has steadily dropped since the announcement.
The street is not looking for the company to go under, just lose market share, which was already very small, will now be less for atleast the next 2 years. All should hope the transisition goes bugless, if not, could be the death blow of Apple…..unless you keep buying the overpriced IPods and they break more frequently….ouch I burned my hand on that battery! LOL
Apple has been one of the most profitable tech stocks for the past 2 years. Small drops are only to be expected. Apple just reported the strongest quarter ever in the company’s history and sales grew 3x the industry average. Also, Apple’s typically dead summer months are BOOMING. This current quarter is projected to be twice year-over-year sales and Apple always estimates conservatively.
Apple won’t be losing marketshare. Sales may be hurt in the short term, but Apple is committed to supporting the PowerPC architecture for many more years.
iPods do not break more frequently. Apple has an amazing replacement policy for batteries. Take your iPod to an Apple Store, bitch, and you’ll get a free replacement. I’ve seen it over and over again. The moron that burned himself on the battery did so because he put his iPod through a wash cycle.
Edit: Merrill Lynch today maintained a Buy rating on Apple and Forbes reports that Banc of America Securities maintains a Buy rating
Jeremiah,
I have to say that you crack me up! And, personally, it just adds even more amazeableness that Apple would go to Intel… What’s next? Windows based computer companies rolling out Mac equivalents? :)
You missed my point I think, its about making money on it J. It took a nice 3.74% drop today. Hardly a small dip…….but your comments pretty well prove what most analysts, I believe, are thinking and reading.
Disdain for MS and Windows? Who, what, and where, other than the Mac folks feel this way? One article here and there is not reality guy. I truly believe if Apple had the better, faster, more reliable OS, hardware, etc., they would have beat out MS back in the 80′s. And I speak from experience on this as you should know. Numbers tell it like it truly is J. I understand you want the world to feel the same about Apple as you do, but Apple missed the boat so many times.
As a footnote, to go from $44 to $36 in just over 2 months tells me that most investors think this stock is done for its upside potential no matter what the projected forecast may be.
Just being real J, don’t take it personally.
Nothing personal. Just business.
The stock market always overreacts to Apple. The fall in the past two months has been Apple admitting that iPod sales are not going to sell like crazy every quarter. Reality is that last quarter was also one of Apple’s highest non-iPod hardware sales and the momentum of computer sales isn’t slowing. It’s growing! Apple has far higher margins on CPU sales than iPods and, as Apple outlined at its last analyst call, iPods are hardly solely responsible for its last quarter.
SJ knows what he’s doing. So what if IBM fed him (and everybody else) a line about PowerPC roadmap. The real question may be how long ago should Jobs have decided to switch Macs to Intel CPUs anyway?
The bottom line is that OS X users are the winners no matter what CPU they are using. (I understand that the first generation of Mac users were actually more productive despite the Mac’s slower 68000 CPU than were Windows 3.x users who had the faster early x86 CPU.) In fact, I predict that OS X users are going to get more work out of Intel processors than Windows users ever have.
What screws me up concerning SJ’s announcement is do I replace my 700 Mhz flat screen iMac now or wait until POSSIBLY next year for a low end Intel Mac? I can’t even load my copy of Tiger (family pack now in closet behind me) because I can’t read DVD’s.
Finally, I’ve been told that Windows viruses are actually a weakness inherent with Microsoft’s second rate (read: poorly planned) software and not Intel’s CPUs. Whew!
Fred, no offense, but to think viruses are tied to x86 hardware is probably the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard a Mac user say.
Additionally, Apple explicitly states on its website, in its retail stores, and on the OS 10.4 box that you need a DVD drive. Apple also states multiple places that you can get a CD version of Tiger for $10 more.
John Gruber once again has insightful analysis
I think Apple’s desicion to move to Intel systems is dumb. Apple machines have always been built to a different standard than your regular IBM-compat. machine. Apple’s are built more like supercomputer mainframes, which is one reason they work so well as server computers. This is one reason Macs have an advantage over windows machines. Windows simply can not run on these machines. Now Jobs is putting himself in the same category with windows machines. This certainly could be a great downfall for Apple. I think they are getting a little overzealous at Apple. Sales for Apple in the past few years have been on a huge rise, but this still does not put them in the running with windows machines quite yet. The average user is far more prone to choose a windows machine over a mac simply because they are used to windows. I have never heard someone who has actually jumped the gun and switched to mac say that they hate it, but I have heard those who have sat on a Mac for a few minutes say that they hate it. Again this is simply because people aren’t up for the change. Most people do not understand technology, nor do they care to. Part of this whole switch is also due to the price of powerPC chips. They are quite expensive, however, they also work better than Intel chips. I think if Apple were able to get Intel to produce a PowerPC-like chip then I think Apple might be fine. Part of this decision also comes from the fact that Apple wants to produce cheaper computers, even though their Mac mini does compete price-wise with the lower-end of the PC market. I suppose a wiser decision might be to introduce one Apple computer using an Intel chip to see how the market takes it. If this doesn’t take well for Mac, I think there is a good chance that they could put themselves in a very bad situation. With the way IBM is, it would be very likely that they would double the price of their PowerPC chips were Apple to come crawling back. All in all, I feel like this is a bad move for Apple. I feel that while Steve Jobs has done something incredible with this company, turning Mac from something very few used to something that very many use, in less than a decade, he has become cocky about it. Though, try as we all might to speculate on what will happen, only time will tell.
Ars Technica has decent speculation.
Motley Fool predictions:
Apple’s Real Target: Dell
A few thoughts on that article:
– AppleWorks is a dead product. It was replaced in January by iWork.
–
This just isn’t true at all. I can’t find the article at the moment, but Apple has higher margins per computer sold than any other personal computer manufacturer.
– Apple’s software drives hardware sales. Always has, and with the switch to Intel, always will. All of Apple’s marketing revolves around the Mac “experience” of personal computing that just works. With the exact same hardware as Dell, the Mac experience will only become more important. Mac OS X and its newly assembled incomparable lineup of software are worth buying Apple hardware. Most consumers would spend $100 more on new hardware if they never had to deal with viruses, pop-ups, spyware, adware, and general Windows issues. Apple’s problem until this point, is that the difference has never been just $100. Intel hardware will allow this. Since Dell’s experience relies upon Microsoft, Apple’s competition is still Microsoft, not Dell.
Profits rule like an IRON FIST!!